FORECASTING EPIDEMIOLOGICAL — the anticipation of possible changes of an epidemic situation in a certain territory based on systematic studying and the analysis of the various factors influencing development or fading of epidemic process.
P.'s problems e. definition of the developing epidemic situation, detection of starting data for scheduling of sanitary and preventive and anti-epidemic actions, ensuring its focus, calculation of forces and means, necessary for its implementation are (see. Anti-epidemic actions , Sanitary and preventive actions ).
During the forecasting of an epidemic situation various data are considered.
1. The seasonality of infectious diseases matching the period of the easiest implementation of the mechanism of transfer of their activators, and sometimes the period of the most frequent exacerbations of chronically proceeding diseases, seasonal changes a gigabyte. conditions of life and food of the population; however permanent decrease in incidence owing to effective anti-epidemic actions can lead to smoothing or disappearance of seasonal rises.
2. Condition of immunity of the population to these or those inf. to diseases, estimated according to the accounting of the preventive inoculations which are carried out in the specific territory, the accounting of the persons who had the diseases leaving lifelong immunity and also on materials of selective serological inspection of various age groups of the population.
3. The general epidemic situation in the world that is especially important for inf. the diseases which are characterized by bystry and pandemic distribution.
4. The available data on cyclical upswings of incidence nek-ry inf. diseases.
5. Data on number of diseases and character of their current during the period preceding volume for which anti-epidemic actions are planned; prevalence of diseases with long or hron. current, character of a carriage of contagiums and invasions (see).
6. Population shift; dignity. - a gigabyte. providing (water supply, food, placement, automobiles, etc.) the moved contingents of the population in way and on arrival to the destination; sanitary patrolling (see), especially on the ways of air, railway and sea passenger traffics with the countries where quarantine infections (are widespread see. Quarantine diseases ). For certain territories the particularly important can become arrival of a large number of the new contingents of the population in connection with major projects, development virgin and laylands, construction of hydroelectric power stations, channels, water reservoirs, etc.
7. High incidence of these or those inf. diseases, remaining during the long period; such state can be defined by reduced level a dignity. improvements of settlements, public service of the population, shortcomings of sanitary and anti-epidemic providing the population.
8. Existence of the natural centers of diseases in this area; data on wildings (especially rodents) — possible sources of contagiums, an epizooty among them; about arthropods — carriers of contagiums; the population given serological inspection testifying about it is hidden the proceeding diseases.
9. State and possibilities of health care: number of medical staff, hospital and polyclinic network; number of beds and profile of bed network; laboratories; security dignity. - epid, services inoculative and desinfectants, disinfection installations, a dignity. propusknik, baths, etc.
Especially urgent for the state and international health services of P. e. possible growth of incidence inf. diseases at which the available prophylactics and treatments still significantly do not influence epidemic process (e.g., flu). By the most effective method P. e. for such inf. diseases mathematical modeling of epidemic process of a large scale by means of the COMPUTER is.
Long-term (for years, decades) the forecast of incidence specific inf. by a disease on a certain area it is developed usually by transferring of the past on the future (extrapolation). So, if in the past of the loudspeaker epid. process had cyclically povto ryayushchiysya character, apply Fourier analysis to forecasting: a wavy curve of last years by means of corresponding mathematical methods (see), based on the law of probability (see. Probabilities theory ), proceeds on the future. (For weeks, months) apply more effective method to short-term quantitative forecasting — mathematical modeling of epidemic process in certain conditions (e.g., at specific population density, its movements, etc.). In these cases, entering into the COMPUTER data on the initial stage of spread of an infection in one cities, quite often it is possible to predict time of epidemic flashes and their dynamics in other cities, on hundreds and thousands of kilometers removed from the first. In our country successfully use for the first time the mathematical model and a method of forecasting of flu epidemics developed in Ying-those epidemiology and microbiology of N. F. Gamalei for the USSR with reliability of the forecast to 80% of incidence. On the basis of this method P. e. on flu carry out also in a number of the countries.
The deep analysis of the listed above factors, the correct assessment various epidemiological, biological, immunological and the socio-economic indexes influencing emergence p development of epidemic process allow with sufficient reliability to carry out evidence-based forecasting veroit
to Nosta of emergence and development of epidemics. It, in turn, allows to build the most rational plan of anti-epidemic actions.
Systematic account and analysis epidemiol. this, necessary for P. e. in a certain territory, are a duty of everyone a dignity. - epid, establishment and regional research in-t of the same profile.
See also Forecasting .
Bibliography: Baroyan O. V. and Rvachev L. A. Matematika and epidemiology, M., 1977; Baroyan O. V., Mironov G. A. and Rvachev L. A. Algorithmization of modeling of global epidemic process of a mutant origin, Programming, No. 5, page 73, 1980.
T. E. Boldyrev, O. V. Baroyan.