From Big Medical Encyclopedia

CAUSALITY PROBABILISTIC — what form of a causal relationship - Lobo of an event with the events preceding it who is shown in the form of statistical regularities. The statistical property of causal relationships is that some events under these or those set conditions are shown not always, and only with a certain probability. Probabilistic character of this or that event, dependence of one phenomenon on another are the cornerstone of many material processes.

The nature and the objective importance of statistical regularities was opened only in connection with knowledge of fundamental levels of the organization of matter. In the beginning it occurred in physics, then in biology (the general genetics, genetics of populations and the evolutionary constructions based on it). In particular, idea of statistical property of patterns in wildlife was used by the synthetic theory of evolution. The basis for this purpose was that extremely important (in comparison with classical theories) the place which was taken in these latest scientific constructions of the concept «need» and «accident», «opportunity» and «reality», «probability» and «reliability». In the beginning statistical regularities were not considered as an objective, fundamental form of a causal relationship. Most of scientists, and first of all physicists, saw in them only special reception, with the help to-rogo more convenient to describe difficult, with many components, the processes submitting to fundamental nonstatistical laws. The quantum-mechanical theory which only appeared at the beginning of 20 century broke the opinion on continuous and unambiguous character of causal relationships dominating in classical natural sciences. However, distribution of statistical regularities on processes of interaction in a material world generated a number of the indeterministsky concepts which influenced, in particular, formation of a konditsionalizm (see).

In the modern concept of a determinism (see) statistical regularities are considered as one of objective and fundamental forms of causal relationships. At the same time it is necessary to speak about dialectic unity of statistical and dynamic regularities at which the fixed conditions do an event inevitable or completely exclude it. The dialectic unity of these two forms of causal relationships is shown that dynamic patterns in many cases result from imposing of a large number of patterns of statistical type, and the statistical regularities inherent in the mass phenomena, often have the prime cause the certain dynamic patterns managing the single phenomena. And this or that value of probability of any event is defined by degree of interrelation with other correlated events that eventually depends on the organization of system, in a cut process proceeds (see. Probabilities theory ).

At the same time, as showed researches of the Soviet scientists Ya. F. Askin, V. S. Visharenko, N. F. Pilipenko, Yu. V. Sachkov, I. T. Frolov, etc., ambiguous, probabilistic interactions between the separate phenomena, states or processes can be shown in the form of statistical regularities of two types. The first form — statistical determination in narrow sense, or tikhestichesky, is shown in a number of such biol, processes as a mutagenesis, drift of genes, etc. Process of adaptive evolution in a broad sense submits to statistical determination, in the course to-rogo as a result of chance nondirectional mutations adaptation to specific conditions forms.

In modern medicine probabilistic representations and methods of the analysis of causal relationships are used in epidemiology of noninfectious diseases, such as coronary heart disease (see), atherosclerosis (see), collagenic diseases (see) and some other, for studying of their etiology and a pathogeny. During the analysis of these reasons and some other diseases clinical physicians should carry out a statistical analysis of so-called risk factors. Usually refer age, a sex, a row to their number biochemical, indicators of blood, some addictions (e.g., smoking), certain environmental factors, and also associated diseases. Existence of one or several of these factors, their expressiveness considerably increase danger (probability) of developing of this or that disease, though do not define its inevitability.

Value of the probabilistic principle of the description of causal relationships especially increased in medicine in connection with broad penetration in it of methods and concepts of cybernetics (see. Cybernetics medical ), the general theory of systems (see. System ), theories of information (see), a method of operational research (see) and development of programs of machine diagnosis (see. Diagnosis machine ).

See also Causality .

Bibliography: Visharenko V. S. Determination in biological processes, L., 1975; Mayr E. Cause and effect in biology, in book: On the way to theoretical biology, the lane with English, page 47, M., 1970; Petlenko V. P., With t r at-kov A. I. and Khmelnytsky O. K. A determinism and the theory of causality in pathology, M., 1978; Filyukov A. I. Genesis of the probabilistic ideas in theory of evolution, Minsk, 1980; Frolov I. T. Life and knowledge, M., 1981.

V. I. Tyshchenko.